With a number of big banks lowered the target price, it is difficult to restore the market confidence in the renovation of a big deal？

Recently, the central bank's 300 billion shares repurchase increase holdings have officially landed, setting off a wave of repurchase increase holdings in listed companies, which is expected to further boost market emotions.However, at the moment when the market is generally recovered, there are still some enterprises that are weak in stock prices, and the rise is only "a short -lived", and most of them fell back to the original level after the popularity.

On October 21st, the closing of new and beautiful (01910) fell 2.24%to HK $ 18.32, and most of the increase in the past month has been vomited.On the news, a number of investment institutions have lowered the company's target price. It is expected that the company's performance will continue to perform weakly. Previously, the company rumored that it would be listed on the market under the arrangement of JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley.Multi -message disclosure.

Data show that since August, sneakers have frequently repurchased, and it has spent about 200 million Hong Kong dollars for repurchase in October alone.Q3 Performance guidance is weak and the market growth space is limited. How will the rush to restore the hearts of investorsJaipur Stock?

Profit indicators have risen, and it is difficult to hide performance growth?

In the first half of 2024, the domestic tourism and consumer market rebounded rapidly. According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the number of domestic tourists in the first half of the year was 2.725 billion, a year -on -year increase of 14.3%; domestic tourists spent 2.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.0%year -on -year.

The continued heating up of the consumption of cultural tourism has also led to the rise of new and beautiful medium -term profitable indicators.The interim report shows that the company's net sales in the first half of the year were US $ 1.768.5 billion, a decrease of 0.4%year -on -year; gross profit was US $ 10.64.8 billion, a year -on -year increase of 2%; the business profit was US $ 314.7 millionAbout 164 million US dollars, a year -on -year increase of 7.7%; the basic profit per share was $ 0.113.

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, in terms of regions, in the first half of 2024, the net sales in Asia, Europe and Latin America increased by 2.0%, 4.6%and 20.3%year -on -year, while North America maintained relatively stable.

From the perspective of sub -brands and channels, in the first half of 2024, the net sales of the TUMI brand increased by 0.3%, while the net sales of the American Tourister brand decreased slightly by 0.9%;, Accounting for 38.1%of the total sales of the first half of 2024, while 37.7%in the first half of 2023.

In the first half of 2024, the company's gross profit margin increased from 58.8%in the same period last year to 60.2%, setting a record half -year record, and all regions improved.According to the company, the growth benefits from the increase in the proportion of DTC channels in total sales, the change of brand portfolio, and the continuous control of the discounts of promotion.

Entering the second half of the year, the popularity of tourism consumption has not decreased.Taking the National Day holiday as an example, after the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, 765 million people traveling nationwide during the National Day holiday, an increase of 5.9%year -on -year by comparable caliber, an increase of 10.2%over the same period in 2019; domestic tourists spent 700.817 billion yuan in tourismAccording to comparable calibers year -on -year increased by 6.3%, an increase of 7.9%over the same period in 2019.

However, investment institutions are not optimistic about the new and beautiful third -quarter results.For example, Yamato released a research report stating that there is no significant difference between the rosbloid Q3 business trend and Q2, and most of the major markets will continue to slow, and the performance trend of Q4 business will not change significantly; UBS says that the company's Q3 performance is expected to beUnder the influence of factors such as price competition in the Indian market and the slowdown in the growth of western regions, it is weak. In addition, the degree of deleveraging is greater than expected and unfavorable sales portfolios.Hyderabad Stocks

In addition to the more pessimistic factor in the overall consumption environment, the main concerns of the market for the beauty of the trees are still in terms of liabilities and growth.

The debt pressure is slightly reduced, and it is still trapped in the insufficient growth momentum of growth?Agra Investment

Small debt issues dates back to 2016.That year, the company acquired high -end brand TUMI for 1.824 billion yuan, and then the proportion of goodwill and intangible assets in total assets increased significantly from 47.8%to 63.9%, totaling 2.97 billion yuan.3.14 billion yuan.

The Zhitong Finance APP learned that due to the impact of the epidemic in 2020, a total of 740 million yuan in goodwill and intangible assets were impaired in the first quarter, resulting in a net loss of 790 million yuan in a single quarter.In order to supplement liquidity, the long -term borrowing and liabilities have increased furtherNew Delhi Investment. As of March 31, 2024, the company's cash and cash equivalents were 745 million yuan, and the non -repayment of financial debt was 1.825 billion yuan, and net debt was 1.08 billion yuan; goodwill was well -known;The intangible assets were 2.812 billion yuan, accounting for 52%of the total assets; the asset -liability ratio was still as high as 68.57%.

However, since this year, with the improvement of profitable indicators, the company's destocking situation has performed well, and the debt status has also improved.The interim report shows that the company's inventory decreased by 14%year -on -year to US $ 640 million, and the number of days of inventory rotation decreased by 5 days to 171 days year -on -year, and the inventory turnover speed; the net leverage rate in the second quarter of 2024 fell to the lowest level of 1.39 times since the acquisition of TUMI in 2016In the first half of the year, free cash flow increased by 28.7%to $ 81.6 million.

From the perspective of the company's stock price trend, the company's stock price is currently not only a long distance from HK $ 36.5 in 2018, but it is still too early to return to the level of HK $ 30 in March this year.Since late September, although there has been a short period of time, the company's stock price has fallen back to HK $ 18, approaching the level before the market rose.

Even if it has been repurchased many times in the near future, the shanty stock price has not been able to "ride the wind", or because market investors are not optimistic about the company's future growth momentum.

Although the company's revenue has maintained its growth in recent years (except for the sharp decline in the epidemic in 2020), behind the eye -catching performance, the company continues to "sprinkle money".In the same year when the company was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Tim Parker, then the renovated chairman and CEO of the then, proposed the path of mergers and acquisitions.In the next few years, Swing Global has acquired LIPAULT, French fashion luggage brand, Speck, the second largest mobile phone case brand in the United States, Gregory, outdoor and adventure backpack brand Gregory, Italian luggage brand Chic Accent, high -end business luggage brand TUMI, and the world's largest and global, the world's largest, global, and the world.Top Bag Shopping Website EBAGS.

While the mergers and acquisitions are rapidly transformed into multi -brand comprehensive groups and won the growth rate of the average market value, the company's debt has also risen all the way. As of March this year, the asset -liability ratio is still nearly 70%.

Today, with the continuous expansion of the company's scale, the growth rate of performance cannot be avoided, but it is even more noteworthy that the company's market share has declined year by year.

According to the Our Rui consultation, from 2013-2022, the rookie company has always maintained the market share of the global suitcase market. From 2018 to 2022, the share of rookie in the global luggage market fell from 19.4%to 15.9%. In 2022, the companyThe market share is 3.3 percentage points higher than the second LVMH.Ahmedabad Stock

By 2023, the goblin seems to have slipped from the "world's first" throne. According to the recently released company research report, the market share of the global luggage market last year was 3.8%, second only to LVAnd Kaiyun Group.

In addition, according to Euromonal Consultation, the glorious market share in the Indian luggage market also fell from 4.9%in 2017 to 3.7%in 2022.According to reports, from 2012 to 2022, the Indian market's total sales in the goblin accounted for from 10.0%to 5.8%.

This disappears, on the stage, is a rookie brand rookie represented by Rimowa Rimowa Rimowa, Crash Baggage and Away.Different from the brand positioning of the rivers and beautiful business people, the design and marketing of these brands are more younger. It also linked products to trend and cultural attributes by hiring rock singers to promote and hold exhibitions.value.

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the suitcase industry structure is relatively decentralized, and the bags with low consumption frequency are low, and the industry growth rate is low.According to Statista data, the global luggage market revenue will reach US $ 187.6 billion in 2024, and the annual compound growth rate will be maintained at about 3.93%.

The lack of significant growth in the industry also shows that the new and beautiful future growth space is limited.If new and beautiful can not persuade investors with more positive financial data in the second half of the year, I am afraid that the pessimistic expectations of the market will be difficult to digest in the short term.

Kolkata Investment