Indore Investment：The focus of the Asian stock market in 2024： Japan and India are favored, A -share sitting and other catalysts

With the Fed's strong interest rate cut signal, the global stock market rebounded, India and Japan have become the most popular Asian market this year.And the other benefits from corporate governance reform.Although the Indian stock market performed flat during the year, the expected cheap valuation and stimulus policy began to attract investors' attention.

The Asian stock market outlook report released by Morgan Stanley recently mentioned that in 2023, it is a key year for the three major Asian stock markets -Japan has clearly got rid of the economic stagnation of 30 years and accelerated corporate reform. [The Tokyo Stock Exchange requires a company's net ratio (PB) company to disclose and implement improvement measures]; India has achieved a strong relative profit, and the macro fundamentals have been tested in the case of the rapid tightening of US financial conditions.Obtaining international funds flowing into a large inflow; in the context of global de -risk, India entered the "3D journey" (debt, population structure and inflation downward), which led to a downward valuation.

What will happen in 2024?Andrew McCaffely, the world's chief investment officer, recently said in an exclusive interview with the First Financial Reporter that India's story is happening, but the valuation is not cheap, and the market has priced for many positive factors;He is more optimistic about the Japanese stock market. Dongzhi Trading specifically mentioned the attention measures for breaking net stocks (the water net ratio is less than 1 times), and strongly urged these net stocks to disclose relevant improvement policies and specific measures.The listed company must pay attention to the value of shareholders, and international investors still have low -equipped Japanese stock markets, so many funds are still on the road.

He said that despite the slowdown in the economic growth of India, the valuation of some Indian companies is already cheap. In the future, the rise in the stock market still requires a catalyst. At present, India needs to pay attention to the demand side. The key is to boost consumer confidence and stimulate "animals.The return of spirit.

Global darling Indian stock market valuation is no longer low

As investors want to scattered funds from US stocks, international investors have entered the Indian stock market in the past two years, betting on the growth of countries with the largest population in the world.At the same time, India is also one of the beneficiaries of the "India +1" supply chain. Many international companies have set up factories in India.

According to data from the World Exchange Federation, as of the end of October, the total market value of domestic companies listed in India was US $ 3.7 trillion, in contrast, Hong Kong was US $ 3.9 trillion.

India's stock price rose sharply in November. This is due to strong profitability and optimistic growth expectations, which makes the Indian Exchange Group is expected to become the seventh largest exchanges in the world after the New York Stock Exchange, Mumbai, Pan -European Exchange, Japan and Shenzhen.In the past month, India ’s NIFTY 50 company index has risen by 8.1%, which has reached a record high in the fourth quarter.

Looking around the world, no many countries can reasonably be convinced that its GDP will increase at least 6%of sustainable speeds in the next 15 to 20 years.

Morgan Stanley said that since January 2021, India's weight in the MSCI AC Asia -Pacific Index has fallen by 7 percentage points, from 26%to 19%.During the same period, India's weight increased the largest increase, an increase of 4 percentage points to 10%; Australia increased by 2 percentage points to 11%; Japan increased by 1 percentage point, accounting for 33%of the regional index.

The agency believes that India has long showed huge potential and has gradually begun to release."Multinational companies seek a part of the diversification of the supply chain capacity to India. From the perspective of stock investors worldwide or region, it is important that this is now being transformed into profit and market performance. At the same time, this will help local currency enteringThe appreciation channel is strong in local currency appreciation, continuous improvement of net profit margin, and a more stable inflation prospect, this is the main driving force. "

However, many investment institutions still have a cautious attitude towards the Indian stock market. At least in the short term, the International Investment Bank also believes that the three main resistance is the risk of high valuation, position adjustment and upcoming election.

"In terms of positions, EPFR data shows that foreign investors have recovered to India for the first time since 2008 (previously super -match)Indore Investment. The uncertainty of the election may be"Increase volatility" The above investment bank said.

Coincidentally, McCaffry told reporters: "India is a very attractive structural trading opportunity, but the market valuation is currently high. For investors, it is necessary to adopt longer vision and investment period for investors.At the same time, you also need to endure some short -term potential fluctuations, because the market is no longer so cheapSurat Investment. "

In fact, there is no precedent in India.In history, emerging countries have risen through the manufacturing industry. India is undoubtedly a strong manufacturing country. However, India ’s rise has been exchanged through output services, such as providing low value -added services such as telephone service centers for Western English countries.

Many international institutional investors interviewed by reporters have previously stated that there is no labor -intensive large -scale manufacturing support, and India's urbanization process is much slower, even slower than emerging industrialized countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh, which has ledIn recent years, there are few employment opportunities, which may lead to "demographic dividends" to become a "population burden."Therefore, India's current rise must be transformed rapidly in the manufacturing industry. This is why the Modi government has pushed the "production association incentive plan" (PLI) in the past two years to promote "Indian manufacturing".

The Japanese stock market will continue to obtain global capital extensionUdabur Stock

Compared with India, the Japanese stock market seems to be a market that has made global investors more confident. Funding is undoubtedly the key to driving the market. Almost all mainstream international investment institutions have previously matched Japan because of negative interest rates, low inflation, low growth ratesHowever, the popularity of the Japanese stock market rose in 2023.

McCaffri mentioned that although the Japanese stock market increased by 30 % this year, the valuation of the Japanese stock market was actually cheaper.The market benefits from a huge catalyst. Dongzhi Trading specifically mentioned the attention measures for breaking net stocks, promoting enterprises to improve the balance sheet, better utilization of cash, increase returns and dividends.

"At present, international investors are still low in the Japanese stock market, so they need to re -balanced the investment portfolio (funds may continue to flow into the Japanese stock market). Although the stock market has risen sharply this year, long -term funds will not worry too much about a few percentage points.Change, the recovery of the Japanese economy is more critical. "He said.

Earlier, Rob Subbaraman, the global macro research director of Nomura, said in an interview with the First Financial Reporter that he is still optimistic about the prospects of the Japanese economy and the stock market."Tongshu has troubled Japan for 20 years, but has finally risen in the past year, and salary has also risen after the" Spring Dou ". At the same time, due to the problem of labor shortage in Japan, women have been encouraged to participate in the labor market, especially their prime years.Women, this is a positive change. "In his opinion, when the salary is rising and the market does not have extra labor, it means that employees have a stronger bargaining ability, which can increase their liquidity and seek higher wages. ThisIt will make labor distribution more effective and improve productivity.

The key is that Japanese families put half of the deposits in the bank, but the deposit is still a negative interest rate. The current situation will let them start considering "deposit and moving", such as investing in the stock market, which will make the stock market have better action.

Since 1990, the Nikkei index has declined all the way from 40,000 points until 2009 at 7000 points.This is because the growth of Japanese GDP in this 30 years is quite slow and experienced a severe contraction period.

But since 2012, Japan's nominal GDP has returned to the growth track.As of the past ten years of 2021, the cumulative return of the Japanese stock market was as high as 174%, exceeding the S & P 500, etc., while the Japanese deposit interest rate was close to 0.This has a lot to do with "Abe Economics".In 2022, the big problem of boosting inflation was realized. Although this growth was temporarily interrupted by the new crown epidemic, the IMF latest estimates that Japan's GDP will reach the goal of 6 million yen in the next few years.

However, McCaffry also told reporters that the only reverse wind facing the Japanese stock market in 2024 may be the yen."The Japanese stock market tends to climb when the yen devalues. As the Fed releases interest rate cuts, the yen rebounds sharply (USD/yen fell from above 150 to near 143). If the yen continues to appreciate in 2024, the stock market may be difficult to be difficultContinue to rise sharply, although Japan is still a long -term structural opportunity. "

The Indian stock market is still ignited by catalysts

It is optimistic that the Japanese and Indian stock markets have become the consensus of mainstream institutions in 2024, but another consensus is that the valuation of the Indian stock market is already very low and there is an opportunity to grasp.

Johanna Kyrklund, chief investment officer of Schroeder Investment, previously said in an interview with First Financial that although the Indian stock market performed in 2023, "don't ignore India, don't forget the world at this time last year, the world last year.Investors are scrambling to increase the Indian stock market and lay out 'restart transactions'. "In her opinion, the market valuation has reflected the economic slowdown, and low valuations have allowed stock selection to see interesting investment opportunities.In view of the negative value of India's CPI, how to boost consumer confidence in the future will be the most critical.

Coincidentally, McCaffry believes that with the ease of Sino -US relations since the APEC Summit, the market is becoming more constructive. "Now many of the companies in many industries have a significant discount, and the market is almost in pricing.These companies have not increased in the future, this is an overly pessimistic emotion. "

"However, the cheap valuation is on the one hand, and the market rebound needs to be promoted by catalysts, which makes people realize that there are no more sellers." He said that the risk that needs to be eliminated is that several key elections in 2024 landed; in addition, India, India, IndiaReal estate is restrained and entering the deleveraging stage, and the implementation of future stimulus policies is also very important.At present, you need to pay attention to the demand side.

Gao Ting, general manager of Nomura Oriental International Securities Research Department, told reporters a few days ago that the current A -share market has undergone the downward pressure on the fundamentals of sufficient pricing. The further introduction of the future stable growth policy is expected to bring more upward opportunities.The expected net profit growth rate of the CSI 300 Index was 5.8%and 8.3%, respectively.It is recommended that the main line of investment focuses on the overlooking opportunities from the dual -cycle strategy and the A -share market for three consecutive years.

Gao Ting believes that there are three medium -to -long -term investment main lines worthy of attention: First, consumption upgrades under the transformation of new domestic demand, that is, modern urban consumption, mass consumption quality upgrade, and population consumption upgrade;The value -added direction of the outer cycle; the third is the opportunity to repair in the over -decline.In addition, if overseas interest rates continue to lower, foreign capitals are expected to benefit active funds to the return of food and beverage, electric new and pharmaceutical industries.