Coal mining industry Weekly report： The rise of coal prices has risen still rising trends, the fundamentals of supply and demand, the fundamentals of supply and demand continues to improve

Coal prices in production areas have risen month -on -month.As of May 10th, the price of the pits (Q6000) pits of Yulin in Shaanxi was 840.0 yuan/ton, and the weekly increased by 30.0 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia's Dongsheng large coal car board price (Q5500) 682.5 yuan/ton, the weekly rose increased month -on -month20.0 yuan/ton; Datong southern suburbs of sticky coal pits (including tax) (including tax) (q5500) 720.0 yuan/ton, which rose 35.0 yuan/ton on a weekly period.Inland electricity coal consumption decreases daily.As of May 10th, the Qinhuangdao Military Railway arrived at 6033 cars this week, a week -on -month decrease of 3.39%; Qinhuangdao Port Volcanic 359,000 tons, a week -on -month decrease of 41.34%.The average inventory level of important domestic ports (Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian, and Sinotrans, and Sinotrans, Tanggang) was 11.28 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons from 11.30 million tons last week, and a weekly decrease of 0.18%.The coal inventory of the seven provinces increased by 1.519 million tons from last week, an increase of 2.05%month -on -month; the daily consumption decreased by 2040,000 tons per day from last week, and the week -on -month decreased by 6.47%; the number of days can increase by 2.60 days from the previous week.Port power coal prices have increased from the previous month.Port Power Coal: As of May 9, Qinhuangdao Port Power Coal (Q5500) Shanxi's market price was 849.0 yuan/ton, and the weekly increased by 22.0 yuan/ton.As of May 9th, Newcaser NewC5500 card power coal FOB spot price was $ 91.3/ton, and the weekly rose 2.1 US dollars/ton; ARA6000 card power coal price was $ 110.1/ton, which rose 7.1 US dollars per ton.Zigang Power Coal FOB has a spot price of $ 90.1/ton, and has fallen 1.0 US dollars/ton on a week -on -month.In terms of coke: Coking steel is temporarily running, and the trend of five rounds has weakened.Origin Index: As of May 10, 2024, Fenwei CCI Luliang's first -class metallurgical focus was 1910 yuan/ton, which was flat on weekdays.Port index: CCI sunshine quasi -level metallurgical focus was reported to 2,000 yuan/ton, and the weekly decreased by 50 yuan/ton.In summary, the coke market is stable and strong. This week, the coke started five rounds of raising, but due to the gaming of the steel coke, the rise has not landedJaipur Wealth Management. As the black plate surface moved down, the price of steel fell, the transaction volume fell, and the steel was declining.The profit space of the factory is compressed, and some steel mills have a greater resistance to the five rounds of rise. However, the overall inventory of the steel mill has been low in recent times, and the demand for replenishment can still be possible.The supply and demand pattern is tightly balanced, and the price and transaction performance of steel must be paid attention to in the later period.In terms of coking coal: The downstream procurement mentality is cautious, and the overall coal prices are temporarily stable.As of May 10, the CCI Shanxi low -sulfur index was 2046 yuan/ton, and the daily ring was flat; the CCI Shanxi high -sulfur index was 1812 yuan/ton, and the daily ring was flat;Although the supply of origin has continued to recover since May, the main production area still has the discontinuation of production or production due to accidents or self -reasons. At present, the overall supply has not resumed until the same period last year.The black system continues to decline, and the five -wheel increase of the terminal focusing on the five rounds has a certain conflict. The raw material side has increased emotions. The new signing of high -priced resources is not goodSimla Stock. Some coal mines have accumulated slightlySurat Stock. However, most coal mines have previous orders.There is no inventory pressure, and the start of the lower reaches of coking steel companies has continued to rise. The raw materials still have some support, and the short -term or polylasm operation is mainly.We believe that it is currently in the early stages of the new round of the coal economy. The fundamentals and policy resonance are resonated. At this stage, the coal sector is configured at the time.In terms of supply, the capacity utilization rate of the three provinces of Jin, Shaanxi Mongolia was 82.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall supply end remained stable.It should be noted that in April to May, the security inspection of coal mines is still large. From April 1st to May 31st, Shanxi Province was in the period of "look back" during the help guidance and guidance of safety production assistance, and Shanxi Province issued "Regarding Coal Mine""San Chao" and the Supplementary Notice of Special Rectification of Hidden Working Faces "extended the rectification time to end at the end of December 2024; Shaanxi Province started to start a major safety production incident in mid -April.Investigate the three stages of self -reform, special inspection, and accountability, and the end of September.At the same time, the remaining major coal-producing provinces have carried out special actions for safety supervision. We expect that under the high pressure of security supervision, the supply of coal supply in the main producing areas in May or even throughout the year will maintain negative growth or growth year-on-year.In terms of demand, the daily consumption of seventeen provinces inland and eight provinces of the coast (inland seventeen provinces decreased by 2040,000 tons/day from last week, and the daily consumption of eight coastal provinces decreased by 240,000 tons/day last week).In terms of non -electrical demand, the weekly coal consumption of chemical industry decreased by 40,800 tons/day, and the weekly decreased by 0.65 percentage points, which maintained a high level year -on -year.In view of the recent production of coking steel companies, short -term demand has certain support (as of May 10, the national blast furnace operating rate was 81.5%, and the weekly month -on -month increased by 0.90 percentage points).In terms of price, the price of coal this week continued to rise, and the rebound range increased compared with last week (as of May 9, the market price of Shanxi production of Power Coal (Q5500) of Qinhuangdao Port was 849 yuan/ton, and the weekly rose 22 yuan/ton; BeijingTanggang Shanxi's main coking coal library price increase (including tax) 2200 yuan/ton, which rose 50 yuan/ton month -on -month).It is worth noting that the demand for coal demand for overseas India, Vietnam and other countries (January to March 2024, Indian coal imports have accumulated 65.51 million tons, an increase of 24.1%over the same period last year;20.5688 million tons, an increase of 72.3%over the same period last year), the impact of a new round of warming in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the price of coal in the international market rose to $ 150/ton.Overall,With the re-production of downstream re-production and re-production, especially the resumption of the construction of infrastructure projects, non-electrical demand is expected to gradually improve, and domestic coal supply contraction is reduced under the continuous constraints of safety supervision (from January to April of 24 years, the national coal production decreased by 4.1% year-on-year) And overseas coal prices continue to maintain high or triggered imported coal reduction, especially the amount of spot tension and inventory have not obviously the barrier library or even coking coal inventory at the same time.And once you enter the peak summer early summer, the active replenishment of the power plant (June to July) and the continuous marginal improvement of non-electrical demand (August to September), the price of power coal is still rising, and it is large.The rebound is higher.At the same time, we believe that the supply and demand supply of coal supply and demand is the most critical. The supply is non -elastic and demand is elastic. The main contradiction is whether the demand can fulfill the obvious recovery.At present, the normal fluctuations in the off -peak season of coal prices should not be taken, and there is no need to over -care about the short -term price callback. It should also pay more attention to the annual price center that is expected to be at a relatively high level, and then determines that high -quality coal companies are still expected to maintain a higher ROE level.Based on this, we believe that the coal sector has a high -dividend marginal support downward, and the upward elasticity has subsequent coal prices to catalyze, superimposed with the bottom of the coal price confirmation to bring valuation to reshape and have great room for improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to the current bottom layout of the bottom layout at the bottom of the bottom layout.Chance.In general, in the context of great energy inflation, we believe that the tight coal supply and demand pattern in the next 3-5 years has not changed. High-quality coal companies still have the attributes of high barriers, high cash, high dividends, and high dividends.Promoting the valuation of the sector to reshape, the sector has both investment offensive and defensive and cost -effective. After the short -term sector is adjusted, it has highlighted high investment value. It is recommended to focus on the current coal allocation opportunities at this stage.Investment suggestion: Combined with our research and judgment on the energy production capacity cycle, we believe that under the situation of the increase in coal production in the country, the tightening and tightening situation of coal supply may continue to continue the entire "14th Five -Year Plan" or even the "Fifteenth Five -Year Plan", or we need to need New planning and construction of a number of high -quality production capacity to ensure the demand for energy coal in my country for medium- and long -term energy.In the context of the acceleration of coal layout, the investment of resource bills and ton coal investment, the rise of the rigid cost of economic development is expected to support the high level of coal prices.Highly certainty.At present, the coal sector has high performance, high cash, and high -scoring attributes, superimposed in the industry's high prosperity, long cycle, high barriers, and upside down in low valuation and primary and secondary valuations.We continue to look at the multi -coal sector and continue to recommend attention to the historic configuration opportunities of coal.Focusing on the bottom up: First, Yankuang Energy, Guanghui Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry, Shanmei International, and Jinkong Coal Industry with large space and extension of the space and excellent resource endowment;Value re -estimation improvement of coal central enterprises India, India, China, China Coal Energy, New Energy, etc. Third, the high -quality metallurgical coal company of global resources, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi coking coal, Xunan Enhanng, Panjiang sharesFourth, it is recommended to pay attention to orchid innovation, Huayang shares, etc., which can do metallurgical spraying coal, and related opportunities in the field of coal production and construction under the new round of production capacity cycle, such as Tiandi Technology and Tianma Zhikong.Risk factors: Coal mine safety accidents occur in key companies; downstream energy -consuming power departments continue to restrict large -scale production; macroeconomic stalls have fallen sharply.

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(Editor in charge: Wang Dan)Udabur Wealth Management

[Disclaimer] This article only represents a third -party point of view, and does not mean that Hexun.com's position.Investors operate accordingly, please take the risk.

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